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Chinese economy seen steadying as PMIs hit multi-month highs

BEIJING — China’s factories posted their strongest growth in at least one-and-a-half years last month, as new orders surged to multi-month highs, two surveys showed yesterday, cementing bets the economy is regaining momentum after a spate of stimulus measures.

Surveys show that the rebound in manufacturing was led by firmer domestic demand. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

Surveys show that the rebound in manufacturing was led by firmer domestic demand. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

BEIJING — China’s factories posted their strongest growth in at least one-and-a-half years last month, as new orders surged to multi-month highs, two surveys showed yesterday, cementing bets the economy is regaining momentum after a spate of stimulus measures.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) issued by the government climbed to a 27-month high of 51.7 last month. A separate PMI published by HSBC/Markit also rose to 51.7, its best performance in 18 months. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The data signals the world’s two largest economies are gaining momentum, after the United States this week reported a 4 per cent pace of expansion in the second quarter.

Analysts also welcomed the data as a sign that the world’s second-biggest economy is enjoying a revival after a rocky spell prompted the authorities to launch a volley of support measures, including increasing bank lending to spur growth.

Now that looser monetary policy is having its intended effect, some analysts questioned the need for more economic stimulus in China, at least in the near term.

“There is no reason in China to be concerned about growth right now,” said Mr Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics. “It’s a good time for policymakers to step back from stimulus and concentrate on reforms.”

Mr Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays in Hong Kong, agreed, telling Bloomberg Television: “Growth seems to be stabilising and the government would be able to focus more of its energy on the reform agenda in the second half of this year.”

Both surveys showed that the rebound in manufacturing was led by firmer domestic demand as new orders — a proxy for domestic and overseas demand — rose more sharply than new export orders.

The official PMI showed new orders jumped to 53.6 from June’s 52.8, the best reading since May 2012. The HSBC/Markit PMI also showed the new orders sub-index jumping nearly two points to 53.3, a level last seen in March last year.

Worried by a slowdown in the economy in the first quarter, China began easing policy in April by cutting taxes, hastening investment and lowering the reserve requirement for some banks. All of this should help China sustain its economic recovery, said Mr Qu Hongbin, an analyst at HSBC.

“We expect the cumulative impact of these measures to filter through in the next few months and help consolidate the recovery,” he said.

Growth cooled to an 18-month low of 7.4 per cent in the first quarter. It was only after the flurry of policy support that activity edged back up to 7.5 per cent between April and June, in line with the government’s gross domestic product expansion target for this year.

Some economists say the economic recovery still hinges on the magnitude of China’s pro-growth steps and whether the government can successfully curb the risks stemming from a cooling property sector.

Indeed, in a sign that the recovery may still be patchy, a sub-index for employment in the HSBC/Markit PMI showed employment contracted for the ninth consecutive month in July, as some firms laid off workers. AGENCIES

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