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The F-35: Singapore’s next generation fighter?

Singapore is poised to make a decision on acquiring new fighter aircraft to replace an ageing segment of its fleet.

Singapore’s interest in the JSF can be traced back to 2003, when it joined the JSF programme as a Security Co-operation Participant. Photo: Reuters

Singapore’s interest in the JSF can be traced back to 2003, when it joined the JSF programme as a Security Co-operation Participant. Photo: Reuters

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Singapore is poised to make a decision on acquiring new fighter aircraft to replace an ageing segment of its fleet.

During last month’s Committee of Supply debate, Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen expressed Singapore’s desire to acquire new military platforms, particularly for the air force and navy. Noting that two of the Republic of Singapore Air Force’s (RSAF’s) main air combat platforms are either approaching mid-life or the end of their operational life cycles, Dr Ng revealed that his ministry was close to completing its evaluation of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) as a potential replacement for its ageing fighters.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance, the RSAF’s current air combat fleet comprises 24 Boeing F-15SGs, 20 Lockheed Martin F-16Cs and 40 F-16Ds, as well as 28 Northrop F-5S and nine F-5T Tiger IIs. While the F-15SGs were recently acquired in 2008 as a replacement for its retired A-4SU Super Skyhawk fleet, the F-16C/Ds entered service in the late 1990s while the F-5S/Ts have been operational since the late 1970s.

THE JSF PROGRAMME: A TROUBLED ENDEAVOUR

The JSF programme, now costing a record US$396 billion (S$492 billion), is an ambitious international combat aircraft development and acquisition project involving the United States and 10 foreign partners — Britain, Italy, Canada, Norway, Turkey, Denmark, the Netherlands, Australia, Japan and potentially South Korea.

Its key selling point is a relatively affordable, yet stealthy “fifth generation” (characterised by highly advanced avionics and radar-evading features) air combat platform, capable of replacing a variety of existing aircraft in air force inventories today.

In comparison, the F-22 Raptor, the only other fifth generation Western aircraft currently in existence, cost around US$74 billion to develop and build.

However, the programme is seven years behind schedule and continues to be beset by technical complications and significant cost overruns. While these issues are par for the course with any large-scale research and development programme, the latter issue has become the stuff of nightmares for partners.

The overall cost for each JSF platform is kept “affordable” by the expected sale of a large quantity of the aircraft — more than 3,000 JSFs are expected to be acquired by the US and its partner nations, although the number has been adjusted downwards in recent years as soaring costs and defence cutbacks have spooked partner nations.

With the uncertainty over the dismal defence budget outlook in the US and in Europe, it is not difficult to imagine further cuts to JSF procurement, a result which would have serious implications for the programme.

ASSESSING SINGAPORE’S INTEREST

Singapore’s interest in the JSF can be traced back to 2003, when it joined the JSF programme as a Security Co-operation Participant along with Israel which subsequently ordered 20 JSFs at a cost of US$2.75 billion in October 2010.

While Lockheed Martin has certainly spared no effort in marketing the JSF here over the past decade, Singapore defence officials have kept mum on any commitment to procure the aircraft, preferring to await additional information to become available as the programme developed.

The picture became slightly clearer in 2007 when the then chief of air force, Major General Ng Chee Khern, revealed the JSF as a contender alongside the Boeing F-15SG to replace the RSAF’s ageing F-5 fleet.

The F-15 series of fighters are combat-proven aircraft with an unsurpassed record of over a hundred combat victories and no losses in air-to-air combat, and as a mature programme it presents considerably less risk of failure.

Moreover, the RSAF has been training with the customised Singapore F-15SG variant since 2009 and is already well into the process of operationalising its first squadron. These factors will no doubt feature prominently in the selection process of the F-5’s replacement.

Given Singapore’s characteristically cautious approach in major defence acquisition programmes — defence planners here have typically opted to minimise risk by acquiring tested and proven platforms such as the F-15 fighters, Leopard 2 tanks and upgraded ex-Swedish Navy submarines — it will be surprising if they do commit to the JSF at this stage of development, when the prospect of further technical glitches and/or cost hikes is still likely.

The prudence is certainly well founded. The Australian experience with the JSF programme presents a stark lesson on the peril of taking on too much risk in defence acquisition.

Recently released documents, obtained by media under a freedom of information inquiry, the former Liberal government and air force officials were revealed to have disregarded a warning from the defence ministry that an accurate assessment of the JSF was impossible with the information available in 2002, and advised that Australia widen its options.

Despite the counsel, the Liberal government sank A$300 million (S$388 million) into the programme. As a consequence, the subsequent Labor government has had to plug the capability gap created by the delay in JSF deliveries and the retirement of some of its aircraft.

AS A LONG-TERM OPTION?

There is, nevertheless, still a strong case for the JSF as Singapore’s next generation fighter in a future acquisition programme.

A key aspect of Singapore’s defence doctrine is maintaining a qualitative edge over other South-east Asian nations. But Singapore’s technological superiority over its neighbours could diminish in an increasingly tough neighbourhood, characterised by heightened defence spending and acquisition of increasingly sophisticated defence equipment.

While such moves may not necessarily guarantee increased military capability, it nevertheless incentivises Singapore defence planners to consider the JSF on more favourable terms.

The fact remains that the JSF is the only (and probably last) fifth generation Western combat aircraft currently being developed which, in addition to its much-touted stealth characteristics and sensor capabilities, offers more room for further upgrades in contrast to the already mature F-15 design conceived in the 1960s.

Unless Singapore is willing to consider Chinese or Russian fifth generation options — a distinctly remote, if not altogether impossible prospect when considering Singapore’s traditional preference for US or Western-made equipment — or even turn to unmanned combat platforms when those technologies mature, then the JSF seems like the only viable option for maintaining regional air superiority in the long term.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Kelvin Wong is a Programme Manager (Military Studies Programme) at the SAF-NTU Academy. The views expressed are his own.

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