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May is earliest date for Bukit Batok by-election: Experts

SINGAPORE – The earliest that the by-election for Bukit Batok SMC will be held is after the Government’s Budget is passed, said political analysts who said how the contest will play out will be influenced greatly by whether it is a multi-cornered fight and the candidates being fielded.

SDP's Chee Soon Juan said the party will contest the Bukit Batok by-elections. File Photo: Jason Quah/TODAY

SDP's Chee Soon Juan said the party will contest the Bukit Batok by-elections. File Photo: Jason Quah/TODAY

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SINGAPORE – The earliest that the by-election for Bukit Batok SMC will be held is after the Government’s Budget is passed, said political analysts who said how the contest will play out will be influenced greatly by whether it is a multi-cornered fight and the candidates being fielded.

While opposition parties generally have an edge in by-elections because voters know the Government will not change, analysts noted that Bukit Batok was carved out of Jurong Group Representation Constituency (GRC), which garnered the highest vote share of 79.3 per cent in the General Election last September - against a Singaporeans First team.

Within half an hour of news breaking about David Ong’s shock resignation on Saturday afternoon (March 12), several opposition parties expressed interest in the by-election that will be called. The losing candidates in Bukit Batok last year threw their hearts into the ring; both the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) and independent candidate Samir Salim Neji stated their intentions to contest. Other parties, including the National Solidarity Party, Reform Party, and Singapore Democratic Alliance, also said they are studying the situation, but have adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Singapore Management University (SMU) law don Eugene Tan said that the by-election would likely be called earliest in May, as April would be taken up by the Budget and Committee of Supply debates.

Dr Gillian Koh, deputy director at the Institute of Policy Studies, agreed that it was unlikely a by-election would be held before the end of April, given that the Budget season lasts for five to six weeks and will start on March 24.

“Third quarter of the year would be more likely, as the ruling party would probably like some time to lapse after last year’s GE,” Assoc Prof Tan added.

In terms of how the contest will play out, Assoc Prof Tan noted that voters “will recognise that PAP MPs do suffer from human failings as well”.

He added: “The by-election is still for the PAP to lose, because of the comfortable margin that they have from last GE. What has happened doesn’t speak well, but it’s not politically fatal to the PAP’s by-election prospects."

This is the second time a PAP MP has resigned from his seat in four years. Mr Michael Palmer stepped down as Speaker of Parliament and MP of Punggol East in December 2012 after admitting to an extramarital affair.

Associate Professor Bilveer Singh from the National University of Singapore added that he doubted the “issue of moral deficit and personal indiscretion” would determine the electoral outcome.

The PAP has not much to fear as well, even though they “tend to do badly in SMC by-elections”. This is because Deputy Prime Minister and Jurong Group Representation Constituency (GRC) MP Tharman Shanmugaratnam’s “influence and respect is strong” in the area, he said.

Bukit Batok was carved out of Jurong GRC as an SMC for the 2015 General Election.

Dr Koh noted that the last time the PAP won a by-election was in 1992 in Marine Parade GRC, in a four-cornered fight. That team was led by then-Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, and was also when current Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean was introduced.

Both Dr Koh and Dr Tan said that voters will be concerned with each candidate's ability to take care of municipal issues given that it is a single seat. Dr Tan said voters will be mindful of whether the party they elect is in a position to run a town council that “can provide the level of service they’re comfortable with”.

Dr Koh said that the PAP could ride on the strength of political capital that Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratam and Speaker of the House Madam Halimah Yaacob have built up over the years in that area, before Bukit Batok was carved out for the last election.

Assoc Prof Singh added that the “strong role” DPM Tharman is expected to play in this by-election signals that he will be the “key gamechanger” and will give advantage to the PAP, regardless of which opposition parties contest.

Should it turn out to be a multi-cornered fight, Dr Koh thinks the outcome will be more like Marine Parade in 1992 than Punggol East in 2013 - the Workers’ Party's candidate Lee Li Lian beat PAP candidate Koh Poh Koon to win the seat.

In terms of candidates that the parties will field, Assoc Prof Tan said that should the SDP field Paul Tambyah as its Bukit Batok candidate, which he felt would be the “strongest candidate”, it would be a straight fight between the PAP and SDP, and opposition votes would not be split even if a second or third opposition party jumped in.

“The real challenge lies in if little differentiates the SDP candidate from the second or third opposition party candidate, and voters cannot tell who is the strongest. Where there is a clear strong opposition candidate, the opposition votes will coalesce around that particular candidate,” he added.

Dr Koh noted that it was “no surprise” that SDP chief Chee Soon Juan was quick to indicate his intention to contest, being a key player in opposition politics.

“But if it is not a straight fight, especially if there is no strong returning opposition candidate, the opposition may not do well,” she added.

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