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N Korea rocket launch chills Beijing-Seoul ties

BEIJING — When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the United States’ firm ally South Korea in 2014, it seemed to be the beginning of a promising courtship.

BEIJING — When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited the United States’ firm ally South Korea in 2014, it seemed to be the beginning of a promising courtship.

His host, President Park Geun-hye, returned the favour by coming to Beijing last year for an important military parade that other American allies boycotted, a gesture that Mr Xi may have believed could lead to weaning her away from Washington.

For her part, Ms Park hoped that her new friend in Beijing — South Korea’s top economic partner — would tamp down the relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons by the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un.

But the prospect of a friendly new era between China and South Korea seemed to collapse this week. After North Korea, China’s treaty ally, launched a rocket, apparently to test ballistic missile technology, South Korea embraced what China had been trying to prevent: An American anti-missile defence system that will be deployed on China’s doorstep.

China now appears angrier at the South Koreans than at Mr Kim, who ignored its advice against the rocket launch.

Ms Park’s government said it was entering talks with US President Barack Obama’s administration regarding the deployment of the American system, and the Pentagon said the installation, paid for by the US, would take place as quickly as possible.

South Korea acted after China’s response to the North’s recent nuclear testing turned out to be more tepid than Ms Park had expected after nearly two years of Mr Xi’s wooing, say South Korean analysts.

The system, known as THAAD, for Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, would offer South Korea, and the nearly 30,000 US soldiers stationed there, superior protection against Pyongyang’s growing nuclear challenge than Seoul’s current inadequate missile defences, say those analysts.

“President Park was very disappointed and upset with Xi’s inaction and silence against North Korea when she desperately needed Xi’s help,” said Professor Kim Heung-kyu, director of the China Policy Institute at Ajou University in Suwon, South Korea. Mr Xi was then embarrassed domestically by Ms Park’s rush to accept the American defence system, said Prof Kim.

“Xi Jinping’s efforts to enlist President Park as a friend have not gone as well as he hoped”, he said, “and she was certainly disappointed in his efforts to control Kim Jong Un.”

After the rocket launch on Sunday, China expressed “regrets” and argued vigorously at the UN against sweeping new sanctions.

In contrast, China said it was “deeply concerned” about South Korea’s decision to allow the deployment of the missile defence system. It warned that “every country must not undermine the security interest of other countries while pursuing its own security interests”, clearly implying that the missile system was aimed at solidifying Washington’s network of alliances in North-east Asia, rather than offering protection against North Korea.

To demonstrate its annoyance, the Chinese Foreign Ministry summoned the South Korean Ambassador in Beijing, Kim Jang-soo, to protest the talks between Seoul and the US on the missile defence system. (In a nod to even-handedness, the Chinese also called in the North Korean Ambassador, Ji Jae Ryong, over the rocket launch.)

China’s anger at the imminence of an American missile system so close to its borders stems from two propositions, said Mr Chu Shulong, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

First, many in the Chinese government do not believe that North Korea would use its nuclear weapons, said Prof Chu. Second, the belief that deploying the THAAD system is aimed principally at solidifying the US’ position in North-east Asia is widespread in Beijing, where officials fear the ultimate goal is to contain China.

“North Korea is a bad regime, yes, everyone agrees on that,” said Prof Chu. “Is North Korea going to use its weapons? Perhaps not. They are not seen as an immediate threat.”

That judgment differs sharply from testimony to Congress earlier this week by the US’ national intelligence director, James Clapper, who put North Korea at the top of what Washington views as nuclear and proliferation-related threats.

Of more concern to the Chinese than the North’s nuclear weapons, said Prof Chu, is the notion that THAAD would knit South Korea and Japan, two US allies that have their own deep squabbles, more tightly under an American umbrella.

South Korea’s decision to stand by its security guarantor in Washington comes as the overall relationship between the US and China has become more tense, marked not only by differences over North Korea but also by competition in the South China Sea.

Next week, Mr Obama will host the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at Sunnylands, the estate in California where he and Mr Xi met in 2013. On that occasion, the two men pledged to work together on solving the North Korean nuclear question. This time, Mr Obama is likely to ask the participants, if only indirectly, to stand with Washington over Beijing.

For China, the “introduction of THAAD is a setback because it links South Korea to a US regional strategy”, said Mr Scott A Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “It remains to be seen whether China will respond to this setback by further limiting cooperation with the US on North Korea or whether China is able to impose costs on South Korea for its decision.” THE NEW YORK TIMES

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