The Big Read in short: Indonesia presidential election — three big issues to watch

Each week, TODAY’s long-running Big Read series delves into trends and issues that matter. This week, we look at the Indonesian presidential election, which is held once every five years. It is a rematch of the 2014 polls which saw Mr Joko Widodo beating Mr Prabowo Subianto by 6 percentage points. This is a shortened version of the full feature, which can be found here.

JAKARTA — Come Wednesday (April 17), the world’s third largest democracy — and its most populous Muslim nation — will elect its president.

Indonesia’s presidential election, which is held once every five years, is a rematch of the 2014 polls which saw Mr Joko Widodo beating Mr Prabowo Subianto by 6 percentage points.

For the first time, voters will choose the president and members of the national parliament on the same day. Nevertheless, elections for provincial legislatures and district/city councils have been largely overshadowed by the presidential polls.

The presidential election takes place against the backdrop of an Indonesia that is more divided than ever, amid increasing religious polarisation.  The proliferation of fake news, which has been dogging the presidential campaigns, is threatening to make matters even worse.

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The Big Read: Religion, fake news take centre stage as divided Indonesia goes to the polls

Indonesia presidential election: What you need to know about the candidates

In what is seen by political analysts as a closely-fought contest, the two presidential candidates have stressed the need for Indonesia to remain secular, amid mounting criticism from progressives and liberals that the country is veering to the far-right.

But their actions in the run-up to the elections have left some questioning if they are merely paying lip service.

Dr Alexander Arifianto, a research fellow at the Singapore-based S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) who studies Indonesian politics, said: “Religion did not really dominate the political scene, even in the last presidential polls in 2014. But identity politics is coming to the fore in this year’s elections, deepening the polarisation and division.”

“What you have now are two camps – the conservative Muslims and the progressive Muslims as well as non-Muslims. There is an ‘us versus them mentality’.”

ISSUE #1: RISING ISLAMIC CONSERVATISM

The division among Indonesian voters is exacerbated primarily by the potent combination of rising Islamic conservatism, especially in the last three years following the downfall of a Chinese-Christian governor, as well as the circulation of falsehoods that focus on religious issues.

Both Mr Widodo, 57, better known as Jokowi, and Mr Subianto, 67, have repeatedly pledged to uphold the country’s constitution and state ideology of “Pancasila”, which places emphasis on religious tolerance and unity in diversity.

However, Mr Widodo’s choice of running mate, the 75-year-old firebrand Muslim cleric Ma’ruf Amin has caused quite a stir. 

Meanwhile, Mr Subianto’s running mate businessman Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno – who is perceived by many as not being religious – has been sighted wearing turbans at some campaign events.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY

• Dr Norshahril Saat, a fellow at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute researching on Indonesian politics, pointed out that during the 2014 polls, Mr Widodo had to grapple with accusations that he was of Chinese origin and not “Muslim enough”. To shore up support among conservative Muslims this time round, his pick of Mr Ma’ruf boosts and legitimises Mr Widodo’s religious credentials, Dr Norshahril added.

• Ms Titi Anggraini Mashudi, the executive director of non-governmental organisation Election and Democracy, cautioned that the candidates’ actions only deepen identity politics and have created an “air of superiority” among conservative Muslims.

WHAT VOTERS SAY

• Indonesians who spoke to TODAY do not think that Indonesia would end up being a full-fledged Islamic state. Entrepreneur Abel Sinarwan, 33, a non-Muslim who lives in Yogyakarta, said that he felt assured by the candidates’ pledges to uphold the Pancasila. “It is for the good of the country that it remains pluralistic, and the candidates know this too,” he added.

ISSUE #2: FAKE NEWS

According to the country’s Communications and Information Ministry, 130 of more than 1,200 online political hoaxes and fake news detected between August 2018 and March this year were related to presidential candidates, political parties and election organisers.

Most notable among them is a video which claimed that Mr Widodo would ban the Muslim call to prayer and legalise same-sex marriage if re-elected. Three Indonesian housewives linked to the video have been arrested and could face up to six years in prison for spreading hate speech and violating a sweeping electronic information law.

Mr Subianto also has had his fair share of fake news, among them, that he plans to create an Islamic caliphate and that his running mate is gay.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY

• Political analysts said the worsening problem of fake news further divides the nation, especially when they touch on racial and religious issues.

• Mr Ericssen, an independent political analyst and a Singapore-based contributor for the Indonesian daily Kompas, said: “This election is the climax of the identity politics war between two presidential candidates. Social media has worsened it by escalating tensions. The current proliferation of fake news in Indonesia is really unprecedented and scary.”

• Ms Mashudi said the proclivity among the electorate to forward fake news to others does not improve political discourse. In the end, it could lead to a situation where there is a lack of discussion on ideas, leading people to make their own assumptions.  

WHAT FACEBOOK SAYS

• In response to TODAY’s queries, a Facebook spokesperson said that it has — as part of efforts to safeguard election integrity — temporarily disallowed electoral advertisements purchased from outside Indonesia if it references politicians or political parties or attempts to encourage or suppress voting. Identification is done through a mix of automated and human review.

ISSUE #3: THE ECONOMY

In 2014, Mr Widodo’s campaign pledges included a 7 per cent annual economic growth and boosting infrastructure. However, last year’s growth, at 5.17 per cent, fell short of the target.

WHAT ANALYSTS SAY

• Some analysts said that a number of Mr Widodo’s infrastructure projects — such as the 938km trans-Java highway, which opened in January this year and connecting Jakarta to Surabaya — do not really help the poor. Indonesians travelling through the highway have to pay a toll of 660,500 rupiah (S$63). “It is not affordable for most Indonesians,” said Dr Arifianto.

• Dr Arifianto said that Mr Widodo’s economic track record makes him “vulnerable”. “He will definitely defend his track record, but the polls will be the judge of that,” he added.

• However, National University of Singapore’s political analyst Bilveer Singh said the slow economic growth cannot be blamed on Mr Widodo alone. There was the global economic slump as well as the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, which has also affected Indonesia’s economy.

WHAT VOTERS SAY

• Boosting the economy and lowering prices are issues that Indonesians who spoke to TODAY are concerned with.

• Mr Sudirman Bie, a 64-year-old who sells old stamps and signs on a cart, said that the prices of plane, bus and train tickets, for instance, have tripled during Mr Widodo’s first term. “I supported him in 2014, but I feel that he does not care for the poor as what he tries to portray,” he added. “So, I’m going to vote for Prabowo this time round cause I think he can make a difference.”

• For younger Indonesians like 22-year-old lawyer Robert Darmawan, embarking on economic programmes such as digitisation would help to boost the economy. “Young Indonesians want good jobs. Digitisation also ensures that the country is not left behind,” he added.

WILL ELECTION OUTCOME HAVE AN IMPACT ON S’PORE?

Regardless of whoever emerges the winner, the outcome of Indonesia’s presidential polls will not have a significant impact on Singapore, said political analysts.

During Mr Widodo’s first term, both countries have enjoyed good ties and cooperation on issues ranging from business, military and counter-terrorism efforts, they noted. And these will continue if he is re-elected.

Should Mr Subianto come out victorious, such cooperation is unlikely to change, given that he has close ties with Singapore, Assoc Prof Singh pointed out.

Mr Subianto, who met Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong last November, has previously proclaimed admiration for Singapore’s founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew.

The analysts noted that over the decades, Singapore and Indonesia have forged strong relations. Unlike with neighbouring Malaysia, Singapore’s ties with Indonesia have not been marred by major bilateral disputes, they added.

During the campaign trail, both candidates have rarely spoken about foreign policies, or mentioned Singapore specifically.