Demystifying artificial intelligence and its repercussions

Amazon recently announced that it would open a convenience store in Seattle called Amazon Go. This foray into the brick-and-mortar business by the American online retail giant is not the only remarkable thing about Amazon Go. What is more striking is that Amazon will be replacing cashiers with an artificial intelligence (AI) system that knows what items you have taken from the shelves and charges you accordingly.

AI — by definition — refers to machines or computer systems that mimic human cognition and intelligence. Experts believe that AI will someday be capable of self-directed learning and automated decision-making. Like you and me, full-blown AI will also be able to come up with superior ways to complete a task.

In fact, it will even get the job done faster, better and smarter than you and I ever could.

But unlike humans, it will never complain, get angry or become tired.

As AI increasingly displaces humans in many tasks, could it be humanity’s last creation?

AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT?

Earlier this year, AlphaGo — an AI system developed by Google — defeated a world champion in the ancient Chinese board game of Go. The trouncing of South Korea’s Lee Se-dol is a crowning achievement for AI. Billions of dollars have flowed into perfecting the technology since the mid-1950s and now, it has finally beaten a world champion in a board game considered by many to be the world’s most complex.

Yet, despite its impressive computing prowess, AlphaGo still does not have the slightest clue that it had beaten a world champion. Until AI develops a fundamental understanding of what winning is, it is not going to see the human race as a competitor, let alone a threat to its survival.

So until that day arrives, we can be more or less certain that AI does not pose an existential threat to humanity.

At the same time, like every major technological invention in human history, we can expect AI to unleash unintended consequences downstream.

The most worrisome one is probably technological unemployment — a term that refers to jobs destroyed by new technology.

Although we are still far away from an AI system capable of human-like cognition and intelligence, rudimentary AI technology is already found in, among other things, robotics, autonomous vehicles and everyday objects labelled under the Internet of Things (IoT).

Most notably, the World Economic Forum estimated that as many as five million jobs around the world — mostly low-skilled and rule-based — will be replaced by AI-enabled technologies in the next five years.

Countries with labour shortages, such as Singapore, might actually benefit. Not only will AI-enabled technologies help fill jobs often shunned by Singaporeans, they are also expected to support an economy that is both highly automated and energy efficient. As Singapore ages, AI-enabled technologies such as advanced robotics and telemedicine can also be integrated into the healthcare system to help care for the elderly.

The story, however, will be quite different for neighbouring countries with a large labour force.

As AI-enabled technologies proliferate, these countries will have to deal with waves of low-skilled workers who can no longer find employment. Many manufacturing jobs will disappear, dashing hopes of a rising middle-class in these countries. Political upheaval could ensue.

In spite of its far-reaching implications, AI remains deeply arcane. Rarely in history has something so powerful and significant been understood or for that matter, controlled by so few.

Even though Singapore could benefit from these technologies, fresh challenges might emerge.

For example, a major concern among AI and cyber security researchers is that the technology may be vulnerable to hacking by cyber criminals. As more critical infrastructures get outfitted with AI-enabled technologies, the fear is that they can be hit by malicious hackers to spread large-scale chaos. Ultimately, no software-based system can be 100 per cent secure digitally.

Another possibility is rising income inequality. In this tech-driven scenario, it is fair to presume that those who have control or mastery of AI will be handsomely rewarded. Since AI is such an arcane field, only a small handful of techies and entrepreneurs are expected to be successful.

Meanwhile, the majority of people will have to struggle as jobs disappear one after another.

There could well be other negative repercussions that await, and getting a handle on what they might be would be the first step to being future-ready.

This is easier said than done. Pre-occupied with short and intermediate-term concerns, most governments do not have the bandwidth to study the sweeping implications of AI in great detail. That is unfortunate since a finer appreciation of the technology is at least needed to reduce the risk of being blindsided by it.

Going forward, we need to have a better understanding of what the negative repercussions of AI might be. That way, we can plan ahead and prepare for the day when the technology becomes an indispensable part of our lives. That would be the first step toward a future that is not only bright, but also secure.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Dr Tan Teck Boon is a research fellow with the National Security Studies Programme in the Office of the Executive Deputy Chairman, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.