What’s in store for Singapore on the land transport front in 2020 and beyond?
Land transport is understandably an issue close to many Singaporeans’ hearts and the start of a new decade in 2020 makes it useful for us to take stock of some significant developments in the 2010s and look at where they might take us going forward.
Land transport is understandably an issue close to many Singaporeans’ hearts and the start of a new decade in 2020 makes it useful for us to take stock of some significant developments in the 2010s and look at where they might take us going forward.
A quick glance at the last 10 years shows that there have been many new land transport experiences here.
These include:
Having travel information at your fingertips through a mobile phone or website;
Being able to hail a ride in a car that picks you up at your door step;
Breezing through an undersea expressway and
Knowing where the available car parking lots are.
The last decade was characterised by the easy access to accurate travel information for private and public transport. As a result, Singaporeans are making better travel decisions, hence avoiding frustration, saving time and possibly money.
At the same time, public transport had a decade of mixed fortunes.
The MRT was plagued at various times with passenger-carrying capacity problems and frequent breakdowns.
The capacity problem has since been mitigated with the roll-out of government-owned buses under the Bus Service Enhancement Programme, the Government taking over all public transport assets, improved signalling systems for trains to run at closer intervals as well as the opening of the Downtown Line (DTL) and the extension of East-West line to Tuas.
Lengthening the Mean Kilometres Between Failure — a benchmark for rail reliability — of each MRT line by enhanced maintenance of tracks and trains, assisted in a major way by having longer hours for maintenance by the early closure and late opening of train lines, have reduced breakdowns.
Ride hailing of private hire cars by mobile phones took the world by storm and Singapore followed suit by permitting Uber, Grab and Gojek, giving commuters another convenient option.
The 2013 Land Transport Masterplan used the catchphrase WCR (walk, cycle, ride) as a way for the future, with less dependence on private modes.
Active mobility (walking and cycling) was thus promoted.
Since cyclists were reluctant to use the road because of safety concerns, they were allowed to share footpaths.
When another active mobility vehicle in the form of the motorised e-scooters joined in, their use put many pedestrians in danger, making it necessary to ban them from footpaths.
On the road front, the Marina Coastal Expressway was built under the Marina Barrage and the sea to strengthen the connectivity of the expressway network.
The “school zone” and “silver zone” scheme (for senior citizens) took off, enhancing pedestrian safety.
When it comes to out-of-pocket travel expenses, what come to mind are Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) charges for motorists and public transport fares for commuters.
The ERP charges have been set to manage traffic congestion and not to raise revenue. Within the city area, these charges have remained relatively constant, but new ERP gantries were installed mainly outside the city and the charges at some have risen considerably to manage congestion.
The distance-based public transport fares introduced in 2010 and reviewed annually by a fare review formula did not see significant annual increases in adult fares until the end of 2019.
What then does the future hold in transportation?
The Land Transport Master Plan 2040 envisages fast connections by walking, cycling and riding to all parts of the island.
The plan alludes to a car-lite future with a more extensive MRT network, more priority for buses on the roads, autonomous on-demand services and more cycling paths.
The car-lite intentions were made clear when a cap was placed on vehicle population by not permitting any annual growth. Whether vehicle numbers will shrink on an annual basis remains to be seen.
What can we see in 2020 in pursuit of these goals?
Three stations in the north of the island of the Thomson-East Coast MRT Line will start operating. Since the final alignment for the Cross Island MRT line has been settled after years of debate, we can expect preparations for the construction work to start.
The work on the North South Expressway, which will be unique with a bus lane, will gather momentum after starting in 2019.
This will be the last expressway to be constructed for a long time to come. Fast tracking of provision of cycle paths and tracks can be expected so as to allow e-scooters and personal mobility devices to make a come-back, as part of active mobility.
With a rapidly ageing population, more senior citizen friendly facilities such as lifts for pedestrian overhead bridges and travellators within buildings could be expected.
The onboard vehicle unit that will be fitted on all vehicles in preparation for the new generation electronic road pricing will be able to give travel information to motorists.
Collection of data on traffic flow, speeds and congestion by sensors on the roadside or by a global navigation system will become more sophisticated and widespread.
So will the collection of data by sensors within the MRT stations and at bus stops on public transport usage.
With such large collection data and processing, travel advice could be targeted specifically at those who would benefit from it. For example, a driver could be informed of congestion ahead and the best route to divert to on his journey. And when a train or a bus breaks down, the passenger could be informed of the possible options for his continuing journey.
Robotics and artificial intelligence are expected to play a significant role in transportation. Driverless vehicles are already under trial and there may be a possibility of them being used on fixed short bus routes in trials to prepare the country for an eventual driverless vehicle future, which will result in more convenient shared transport and less need to own cars.
What is anticipated for travel costs?
The current ERP charges are unlikely to see major variations because the overall traffic situation remains manageable.
But the new ERP system that charges vehicles for distance travelled, which will be rolled out in the early part of the new decade, gives more latitude for varying the charges to smoothen traffic on the road network.
The vast improvements experienced in bus and train travel needed large financial outlays from the Government.
The revenue from fares has lagged behind the operational costs, as is evident from the Government's need to spend S$4.5 billion in operation subsidy over the next five years.
Are such large annual subsidies sustainable? If commuters expect the current level of service to remain or improve, they could expect to contribute more by way of fares in the coming years.
Nevertheless, there are fare concessions and financial assistance to ensure that none will be denied the use of public transport.
Lifestyle changes such as opting more for shared transport for all types of travel, preferring to work from home or remote offices, having a 24-7 work week with no fixed hours to report to offices will all become possible with the advances in communication technology.
The concept of the “peak period for travel” will need redefinition when such changes become widespread.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
A P Gopinath Menon was a member of the Public Transport Council and has more than four decades of experience in transport management. He was previously the Chief Transportation Engineer at the Public Works Department and later at the Land Transport Authority.