SINGAPORE — Manufacturing activity in Singapore shrank for the fourth consecutive month in October, with analysts saying that production lines failed to warm up ahead of the Christmas cheer this year because of weak ­global economic growth.

The Purchasing Managers’ ­Index (PMI) improved 0.3 points from the previous month to 48.9 points last month, but stayed below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction because of further ­declines in new orders, new export ­orders and production output, the Singapore ­Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management said today (Nov 3).

“The readings last month show little signs of Christmas orders. The readings also indicate a lack of producer confidence. Orders for this year are coming in late ... Typically in years where the economy experiences global fragility, orders come in later — ­November to early December — compared to normal years, which will see a pick-up during the months of September to October,” said Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho. “Production has weakened as the readings also show a high inventory situation. And as manufacturers have high inventories, export orders are taken from the inventories instead,” he added.

The PMI sub-index for electronics rose 0.1 point to 48.6, but remained in contractionary territory because of continued weakness in new orders from domestic and overseas markets.

“For electronics, there should be some seasonal month-on-month pick-up towards the year-end,” said Credit Suisse economist Michael Wan, but he noted that lead indicators show that the pick-up will be subdued.

The soft Singapore PMI figure is in line with the weak PMI readings in the region, with factory activity in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia all in contractionary mode.

“Regionally, PMIs are also reflecting the same trend of high inventories. The readings are subdued across the region and reflect the same anxiety and lack of confidence from purchasers,” said Mr Leong.

The manufacturing sector will continue to face downside risks, said Mr Wan. “The lead indicators we track, such as the hard metals complex, ­indicate more downside risks for manufacturing in the coming months, before a potential pick-up as we move into the first quarter of next year,” he said.