In Mahathir’s new Malaysia, a perfect storm for the Pakatan Harapan?

KUALA LUMPUR — Ten months after a general election that overhauled Malaysia’s political landscape, its decimated opposition forces have begun rallying to win back voters by rebranding and repositioning themselves.

Most recently, the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), which led the Barisan Nasional coalition that governed Malaysia for 61 years, teamed up with its long-time foe, the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), to better court the country’s majority Malay-Muslim population – which is also its biggest vote bank.

Barisan Nasional was toppled last May by the Pakatan Harapan coalition led by 93-year-old Mahathir Mohamad, now in his second stint as prime minister. But the euphoria over that historic change of power has since given way to worries over the new Mahathir administration’s performance, alongside Umno’s efforts to claw back support.

The Umno-PAS alliance served the two parties well in a recent by-election, which saw Pakatan Harapan lose a seat in its stronghold state of Selangor.

Even Najib Razak, the disgraced former premier and Umno president who is facing multiple corruption charges, has managed to turn public perceptions around with a carefully crafted campaign with the tagline “Malu apa, bossku?” – or “Why the shame, boss?”.

Its implication is that Najib has nothing to be ashamed of, and the campaign has rebranded him as a motorcycle-riding, hoodie-wearing man of the people, a far cry from the aristocratic image he previously cultivated.

Two other race-based opposition parties and Barisan Nasional stalwarts who took body blows in the 2018 elections – the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) – have agreed unofficially to work together to lobby the Chinese and Indian minority vote.

Observers believe the opposition’s new-found resolve is linked to the ruling Pakatan Harapan’s failure to fulfil electoral pledges to improve the economy – and that voters are becoming impatient, despite the magnitude of the task.

Cracking down on corruption linked to Najib and his administration was a central plank of its election platform, particularly with the multibillion-dollar 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) financial scandal.

“Partly constrained by finance, the government has not done a lot in easing the people’s economic burdens,” said analyst Dr Wong Chin Huat of state-linked think-tank Penang Institute.

“Although commendable, reforms to strengthen or empower the judiciary, the Attorney General’s chambers, the Election Commission and the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission do not immediately improve people’s economic well-being.”

He added that other reforms or measures such as a nationwide smoking clampdown, the ratification of United Nations human rights treaties, and the abolition of the death penalty “divided the country in two”.

“Pakatan Harapan’s bases – moderate Islamists, moderate nationalists, liberals and non-Malays – are not talking to each other to reach acceptable compromises, but rather asserting pressure on the parties to defend their sectional interests,” Dr Wong said.

Experts say economic change takes time, and the opposition is capitalising on just how long effective restructuring can take.

Political economist Dr Terence Gomez recalled the period in Indonesia after the fall of long-time president Suharto in 1998. “Indonesia was chaotic and there was instability,” he said. “People even went as far as to say perhaps they shouldn’t have got rid of him.”

It was only after Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took over as president in 2004 that there was a real focus in Indonesia, things calmed down and got on track, Dr Gomez said.

If the recent actions of some of its leaders are any indication, Pakatan Harapan appears spooked with its first anniversary in power around the corner.

This week, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng – a member of the Democratic Action Party (DAP) under the ruling coalition – released a Chinese-language statement saying the Umno-PAS alliance was tantamount to “declaring war” on non-Malays.

He issued a statement soon after to correct the word he used, saying instead that the alliance would “target” non-Malays. His team contacted Malaysian newsrooms to demand the change be made in stories already published.

The opposition lost no time, filing a police report and demanding that Mr Lim be held accountable for inciting racial hatred and anger in a country which has strict sedition laws prohibiting exactly that.

“He unwittingly created further racial tensions, liable to upset our already fragile national unity,” said MCA secretary general Chew Mei Fun. Meanwhile, deputy defence minister Liew Chin Tong, also of the DAP, had words of warning about the new alliances in a lengthy blog post.

“Their aim is to make Malaysia ‘ungovernable’ for Pakatan Harapan because the popularly elected government will have to deal with angry ethnic fires fanned from both the Malay front and the non-Malay side. The demands from both sides will be contradictory, hostile and explosive,” he wrote.

“The objective of such a ‘flank attack’ is to make both Malays and non-Malays feel aggravated and deprived. Everything will be framed in racial binary terms … In this setting, there is no way that Pakatan Harapan can ‘out-Malay’ Umno, ‘out-Islam’ PAS, ‘out-Chinese’ MCA and ‘out-Indian’ MIC.”

Pakatan Harapan, which has championed a multiracial approach to solving problems of inequality and the high cost of living, believes the opposition will not hesitate to attempt to divide Malaysia along racial lines in the quest for votes.

Almost 70 per cent of Malaysia’s 32.6 million people are Bumiputra – a term referring to ethnic Malays and indigenous people, who receive special economic privileges – and the rest are mainly ethnic Chinese and Indian.

Referring to Pakatan Harapan leaders’ remarks about the Umno-PAS alliance, Umno Youth vice-chief Shahril Hamdan said: “The way they’re reacting suggests they are afraid of the electoral implications of this brand new opposition.

“It bodes well that now both coalitions will be multiracial in composition, although it remains to be seen if both can live up to that in substance. Pakatan Harapan appear to be more multiracial, but as their recent statements and actions have indicated, they are unable to manage diversity very well, leading to discontent among separate communities who all appear to be dissatisfied.”

Mr Chew from the MCA said that after 10 months in power, Pakatan Harapan had yet to come up with “a good, sound and sustainable economic policy”.

“Instead, they still choose to politicise issues, and continue to blame everything on the previous government,” he said.

“So far, they have cancelled, or scaled down several public infrastructure projects meant to benefit the people in the name of ‘cost savings’, as well as sold off several national assets to make up for their financial shortcomings. Both are not sustainable policies in the long run.”

Meanwhile, Dr Mahathir downplayed the significance of the Umno-PAS alliance, saying that Umno, which he once led, was a shell of its former self and “not the biggest threat”.

After a series of defections by Umno MPs to Mahathir’s party, Umno now has only 37 seats in Malaysia’s 222-seat parliament, a far cry from the 133 it won in 2013. More defections are expected.

Referring to the Umno-PAS alliance, Dr Mahathir told the Post in an exclusive interview on Thursday: “Some people will find that this is a good alliance and they might want to return to Umno … [but] Umno has lost its credibility, principally because of the period when Najib ruled the country.”

Observers, however, believe the Umno-PAS link-up may prove formidable.

Dr Wong of the Penang Institute views the alliance as the absorption of a weakened Umno into PAS. “PAS-Umno will be more conservative and intolerant in its outlook, causing its more modern and moderate members to cross over to … Pakatan Harapan parties,” he said.

Najib’s new-found popularity presented an outlet for segments of the population to express discontent and cynicism, Dr Wong said, and their unhappiness that the change of regime had not resulted in an immediate relief of their burdens.

He said Najib’s upcoming corruption trial might remind them of his alleged excesses, which could shrink his appeal. “Ultimately, cynicism will disappear only when most people can feel the gain in regime change.” SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST