Malaysia GE2022: No slowing down for Mahathir, 97, as he campaigns in Sabah but analysts cast doubt on his party's impact

KOTA KINABALU — Malaysia's longest-serving prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has taken his bid to return to the centre-stage of national life to the far-flung state of Sabah but political analysts doubt that his latest party, Pejuang, will gain much traction among voters there.

The analysts cite Sabahans' wariness over peninsular-based parties and a negative perception of Dr Mahathir, 97, as reasons why the party appears likely to struggle in the East Malaysian state.

Dr Mahathir was in the state’s capital of Kota Kinabalu on Sunday (Nov 6) to launch the Sabah chapter of his party, which he founded in August 2020. 

His party is a component party of the Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), which is a loose coalition of political parties, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and academics. Dr Mahathir is also the pro-tem chairman of GTA.  

GTA is fielding 116 candidates for parliamentary seats across Malaysia, including 14 seats in Sabah for the General Election 2022 to be held on Nov 19.

Speaking to reporters at the party’s launch on Sunday, Dr Mahathir expressed confidence that his party could win over voters in Sabah.

"I hope Pejuang can be accepted by the people of Sabah because it can make Sabah more progressive," he said.

Besides the launch, Dr Mahathir, who is the oldest candidate in the elections, visited the township of Papar, just outside Kota Kinabalu, on Monday to show support for the party's candidate in the constituency, Mr Nicholas Sylvester.

However, Dr Mahathir's reception in Sabah has been lacklustre, with photos of the party’s launch in Kota Kinabalu showing many empty seats. Local media reports estimated that there were fewer than 200 people at the event on Sunday. 

Speaking to local media at the event, Dr Mahathir said he was not concerned by the low turnout and said it did not reflect the real support for the party in Sabah. He said that people had not turned up as they were busy campaigning.

The party’s rally in Papar on Monday morning, which TODAY attended, attracted a modestly larger turnout of about 200 people.

Dr Mahathir, who was accompanied by his wife Dr Siti Hasmah, was welcomed by cheering supporters as musicians played the kulintangan, a traditional Sabah instrument, in the background. 

Party volunteers distributed food and T-shirts with the party logo to supporters who sat under large tents outside a local cafe. 

Following a speech by the candidate, Dr Mahathir delivered a 30-minute speech in Malay to supporters, which was punctuated every now and then with applause from the supporters.

When asked by TODAY after the rally about GTA’s lower profile compared to bigger coalitions such as Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), Dr Mahathir said that his party needed to maintain a low profile because it is also involved with NGOs which are prohibited by law from being openly involved in politics. 

“They have to stay in the background but if they want to be represented in the Government, they can ask one of their members to become a candidate…That’s why you don’t see them (NGOs) often, but behind the scenes, their leaders have given an assurance that they will support GTA,” said Dr Mahathir.

Dr Mahathir said that if GTA does not win enough seats to form a new Government, it will work with other parties to do so.

However, GTA will not work with United Malays National Organisation , the main party in BN, or Perikatan Nasional led by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin as they are tainted by corruption, said Dr Mahathir. 

Instead, GTA will work with parties that also share its anti-corruption stance, he added.

When asked about his chances, Mr Sylvester, who is the Sabah Pejuang chief, said that he stood “a fair chance” against the five other candidates contesting in Papar. 

“You’ll never know because the voting trend now is not only about the party. In fact, the party is the last of the three. It's more about the candidate and the issues that they bring,” he told TODAY.

Mr Sylvester is the executive chairman of nonprofit organisation Regional Development Community which creates sustainable development programmes for communities in the Asia Pacific region.

Pejuang party volunteer Faridah Ramlee, 41, said that she supported the party’s candidate because she knew Mr Sylvester personally and he is helpful, and generous. 

ANALYSTS EXPECT 'DISASTROUS OUTING' FOR GTA IN SABAH

Despite Pejuang's confidence, political analysts were highly sceptical of GTA’s chances at the polls in Sabah.

Dr Azmi Hassan, a political analyst from Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said that it is going to be difficult for GTA to gain support in Sabah given East Malaysians’ wariness towards parties from peninsular Malaysia. 

Dr Azmi said that the former prime minister could have chosen to visit Sabah because “he is very confident that he has the pull and attraction” with supporters.

However, Dr Azmi said that Dr Mahathir's ability to attract voters had diminished after his second premiership term under the Pakatan Harapan coalition from 2018 to 2020.

This was because Malay voters, including those in Sabah, had the perception that Dr Mahathir was under the control of the Democratic Action Party, a predominantly Chinese-based party under the Pakatan Harapan coalition.

Dr Mahathir has denied such charges levelled against him previously by his political rivals.

Professor James Chin from the University of Tasmania said that Sabahans will not vote for Dr Mahathir because they blame him for granting citizenship to illegal immigrants in Sabah in the 1990s, which they believe fundamentally changed the demographic of Sabah.

Nevertheless, Dr Mahathir had to field candidates from his coalition in all the states to “look like a winner", said Prof Chin.

“If you skip Sabah, people will say you are not capable of launching a nation-wide organisation,” he added.

Despite Dr Mahathir’s apparent lack of appeal in Sabah, Dr Oh Ei Sun, a senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said that Pejuang may have thought it stood a chance in Sabah with its “Muslim-supremacy appeal” given that Islamic party Parti Islam Se-Malaysia had also made inroads into Sabah.

Dr Azmi said that he expects all GTA candidates, except Dr Mahathir and his son Mukhriz Mahathir, to have a “disastrous tour”, not just in Sabah but nation-wide this election. 

Reiterating his point, Prof Chin said: “I assure you, no Pejuang candidate will win in Sabah.”

Dr Mahathir was prime minister from 1981 to 2003 before returning to the top job after the shock defeat of Barisan Nasional in 2018. He stepped down as premier in 2020 after a falling out with his coalition partners.