Thaw in Singapore-Malaysia ties expected with Muhyiddin in charge, say analysts

KUALA LUMPUR — A thaw in Singapore-Malaysia relations is expected, said analysts and former diplomats, now that Dr Mahathir Mohamad is out of the Prime Minister’s Department.

Long-running disputes between the two neighbours, such as the 1962 Malaysia-Singapore water agreement, are also likely to be put on the back burner as Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin consolidates power.

Also, stalled projects such as the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) will likely be revisited with a view to reviving them.

“Almost any Malaysian PM other than Dr Mahathir would have a more cordial working relationship with Singapore, and Muhyiddin is no exception,” said Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) senior fellow Oh Ei Sun.

Former ambassador Dennis Ignatius said with Dr Mahathir, relations with Singapore were always complicated by perceived slights, personal animosity and the baggage of history.

“He was always very wary and suspicions of Singapore taking advantage of Malaysia’s internal difficulties, with good reason, some would argue,” said Mr Ignatius, a 36-year foreign service veteran.

Dr Mahathir was suspicious that Singapore took advantage of the problems ex-prime minister Najib Razak had with the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal, Mr Ignatius added.

The scandal had its links to Singapore as some of the funds which were siphoned off from 1MDB were channelled through banks in the island state.

A handful of bankers have been jailed and fined by Singaporean financial authorities for money-laundering and cheating in relation to 1MDB.

Dr Mahathir suspected that Singapore could have used the scandal to wrangle more favourable terms on the HSR project, said Mr Ignatius.

When Dr Mahathir assumed office after defeating Mr Najib in the 2018 general election, his administration suspended the HSR in the hopes of renegotiating its terms and price tag.  

“Reviving the water issue and the air space dispute were just ways of signalling his unhappiness and perhaps putting some pressure on Singapore,” said Mr Ignatius.

MOVING FORWARD

Before his government collapsed, Dr Mahathir’s administration pressed Singapore to renegotiate the terms of the 1962 water agreement, particularly the 3 sen per gallon the island republic pays Malaysia for raw water.

Singapore has steadfastly claimed that Malaysia gave up the right to review the price in the 1980s.

Mr Muhyiddin was sworn in as prime minister on March 1 after bringing down the Pakatan Harapan government the week before through the defections of more than 30 lawmakers.

In response to Mr Muhyiddin’s ascension, Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said the island state is confident that it will continue to have a “constructive, mutually beneficial relationship” with Malaysia under its new prime minister.

Dr Balakrishnan said projects such as the Singapore-Johor Bahru rapid transit system (RTS) link and the HSR have been delayed following the election of the previous PH administration in May 2018.

While Singapore could have enforced its legal rights and sought full compensation from Malaysia, it chose instead to suspend both projects through formal agreements and give its neighbour time to review its position and propose amendments in the spirit of “constructive bilateral cooperation”.

Dr Oh of the SIIA believes that certain projects such as HSR are unlikely to proceed unless the government can afford them.

“Muhyiddin is unlikely to go out of his way to antagonise Singapore or indeed any other foreign nation. All those projects were just delayed pending price reviews, so when the prices are right, they will proceed.”

The HSR was initially estimated to cost between RM50 billion (S$16 billion) and RM60 billion when it was first announced by the Najib administration back in 2013.

PH, however, wanted to scale down the project to bring down its costs.

Mr Ignatius expects Mr Muhyiddin to revive the project.

“Once Muhyiddin consolidates his position, I expect relations will quickly move forward again and the HSR project will resume. After all, Johor and Singapore have always had a symbiotic relationship,” said Mr Ignatius.

“Besides, Muhyiddin is likely to have his hands full over the next year or so and cannot afford acerbic relations with Singapore.” THE MALAYSIAN INSIGHT