Is Najib’s popularity resurgence just a blip?

One of the more surprising political trends in Malaysia is the resurgence of former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s popularity, particularly through social media.

Najib is widely recognised as the cause of Barisan Nasional’s (BN’s) unprecedented loss of federal power. Observers have described the results of the 14th Malaysian General Election (GE14) as a protest vote against Najib’s government and Najib himself.

Given that Najib was the first ever BN leader to lead the coalition to a loss, one would be forgiven for believing that he would become a marginal political actor. However, the opposite seems to have happened. How can this be explained?

Prior to GE14, Najib’s public statements repeatedly demonstrated that he was too detached from the realities that average Malaysians deal with each day.

For instance, in February 2018, his endorsement of quinoa as a healthier alternative to rice, in the midst of rising living costs, was ridiculed because of how costly quinoa was.

On the eve of polling day, Najib announced that those under 26 would be exempted from paying income taxes. This was roundly criticised too. To be liable for income tax, one has to earn over RM5,000 (S$1,658).

The reported median income in 2017 was RM2,160, while the median income for those with a degree was RM3,400. Only a handful of those under 26, if any, would have been liable to pay income tax to begin with.

Since losing the election, Najib’s political communication has changed significantly, suggesting that he may have a new team advising him. He is conscientiously rebranding himself as a down-to-earth and relatable politician.

Of course, Najib is hardly popular with all Malaysians. Malaysians across racial groups living in urban areas still view him negatively. That said, Najib’s rebranding exercise appears to have moved him from being among Malaysia’s most vilified figures to one who has split public opinion.

Najib’s participation in BN’s by-election campaigns in both Cameron Highlands and Semenyih drew large crowds of supporters and curious onlookers – particularly among lower-income Malays and the Orang Asli in Cameron Highlands.

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His ‘malu apa bossku?’ — why does my boss have to be ashamed? — tagline helped to boost his popularity with segments of the Malay community.

The narrative’s objective is twofold: First, it aims to cement the perception that he is unaffected by the 42 corruption and money laundering charges levelled against him in relation to the 1 Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal.

The notion is that he continues to participate in grassroots politics because he remains unperturbed by the investigations.

Second, if Najib is ostensibly putting the citizenry’s concerns ahead of the court trial, then his supporters ought not to be embarrassed by the allegations against him.

Najib’s campaign is also aided by the fact that the Malay heartlands understand Pakatan Harapan’s reform discourse very differently from urban Malaysians, partially because the former practise a somewhat differentiated values-system.

To them, reform creates anxiety because it disrupts established ways of life.

Najib’s ‘bossku’ tagline has leveraged on this to generate some sympathy for him as well. Najib’s decision to campaign for BN in Cameron Highlands and Semenyih, seats where support for Pakatan Harapan (PH) is either weak or lukewarm, was tactical too.

He was able to profile himself as someone who is regaining public support, effectively amplifying the apparent support for his re-branding exercise.

The irony is striking given that less than a year ago, Najib was seen as instrumental in swinging the popular vote against BN.

Of course, the reasons BN won these by-elections are far more complex and cannot be reduced to the Najib factor alone. Nonetheless, the United Malays National Organisation’s (Umno) acting president, Mohamad Hasan, acknowledged the significance of Najib’s contributions to BN’s victory in Semenyih.

Mr Mohamad is also believed to be consulting Najib on matters of political strategy, which indicates that Umno’s senior leadership still believes his insights and influence to be of importance to the party.

Augmenting these trends is the fact that PH leaders have kept Najib in the limelight since winning power in GE14. In particular, they have sought to blame Najib for the many problems that the PH government is facing today.

Given that Najib’s unpopularity was essential to BN’s loss, PH leaders logically believed that they could consolidate popular support by keeping the public’s attention on Najib. This has invited Najib to respond.

A common retort he has used is that while the PH government claimed it was ready to govern, it has done little more than blame him for its policymaking difficulties.

He has also used social media to amplify widely-held frustrations against the Government’s ‘u-turns’ on various policy issues.

Paradoxically, the government’s criticisms have enabled Najib to bolster his popularity.

Though Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has stated he is unconcerned with Najib’s popularity resurgence, Najib has sought to exploit existing intra-party and inter-party divisions within the PH to emphasise the coalition’s instability.

There is little doubt that Najib wishes to refashion his political image in order to refocus attention away from the 1MDB case.

While Najib has repeatedly professed his innocence, a key question is whether he is thinking beyond just survival. Nonetheless, Najib will face other hurdles beyond the investigations and the charges against him.

The PH government will attempt to combat Najib’s influence by increasing pressure on him. Umno will also be faced with a dilemma — how can it to use the Najib brand without diminishing its image if things go south for the former Prime Minister?

Herein lies his dilemma. To ensure his long-term political future, he will have to balance his interests with the government’s heavy handedness and his party’s apprehensions.

Failure to do so would render his current resurgence no more than a blip in Malaysian politics.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Prashant Waikar is a research analyst in the Malaysia Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University.