Explainer: As Malaysia heads to early elections, who are the key players and what are the main issues on voters' minds?

SINGAPORE — On Monday (Oct 10), Malaysia's Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced the dissolution of Parliament, paving the way for nation-wide polls by year's end, even though a general election (GE) was not required to be held until 2023.

In announcing that the king has accepted his request to dissolve Parliament, Mr Ismail Sabri, who came to office in August 2020, becomes Malaysia's shortest serving prime minister.

Mr Ismail Sabri said the reason for the dissolution was to put to rest all claims regarding the legitimacy of the current government.

The polls come after years of instability and three prime ministers following the historic 2018 GE, which saw the opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition end the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition’s six decades of power in Malaysia.

However, the PH coalition, led by the nation's longest-serving premier Mahathir Mohamad and his one-time arch-enemy Mr Anwar Ibrahim, was beset by political infighting and collapsed in 2020.

That allowed BN to return to power for a rocky period that has been dominated by the Covid-19 pandemic and a major corruption trial of the country's former prime minister Najib Razak.

Two coalitions currently make up the federal Government. The first is BN, which is made up of the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) along with smaller entities such as the Malaysian Indian Congress and Malaysian Chinese Association.

The second is Perikatan Nasional (PN), which consists of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia and two Sabah-based parties. PN is headed by former prime minister and leader of Bersatu, Mr Muhyiddin Yassin.

TODAY looks at the key players and issues to watch in the lead up to the GE.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

With Parliament dissolved, the Election Commission of Malaysia, which oversees elections, will meet to decide on a date for nomination day and polling day.

Polls must take place within 60 days of Parliament’s dissolution, with political observers expecting polls to be held before the monsoon season in December. The latest the GE could be held is Dec 9.

WHO ARE THE KEY PLAYERS?

THE BN COALITION

Umno: As the first election since its defeat, Umno will use the upcoming election as its “political comeback” and to fend off accusations of being a “backdoor government”, said Dr Norshahril Saat, a senior fellow at Iseas–Yusof Ishak Institute.

Political observers said that the election will be especially important for Mr Ismail and Umno chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

Their performance at the polls will have a bearing on Umno’s internal elections which are scheduled to take place six months after the GE, said Ms Ariel Tan, the coordinator of the Malaysia programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Whoever emerges as party president would then have a good chance to be Malaysia's prime minister down the track, she added.

THE PN COALITION

PAS: The other to watch is Islamist party PAS, led by Mr Abdul Hadi Awang, said political watchers.

While it is unlikely to win a majority of seats at the federal level, it will be aiming to win as many seats as possible to be an “attractive partner” to whichever coalition forms the next government, said Ms Tan.

The party can also play a “kingmaker” role if the electoral outcome is fragmented, said Dr Norshahril.

He said that it is not clear yet if PAS wants to support Umno, or its current PN partner Bersatu in the upcoming elections.

PAS could swing to either party to form the ruling coalition if they retain all the seats in their stronghold states, such as Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu, said Dr Norshahril.

On the PN coalition itself, Dr Francis Hutchinson of Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute said it is also important to watch if the coalition can remain intact as a “third force” against BN and PH.

THE PAKATAN HARAPAN COALITION

The coalition is headed by Mr Anwar, who is also the head of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR). The other coalition members are the Democratic Action Party (DAP), Parti Amanah Negara and Sabah-based United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation.

Public support for the coalition has fallen after its administration collapsed in 2020. It lost several state elections in recent years, including in Johor and Melaka.

The party is also wracked with internal fighting. While Mr Anwar wants to adopt a “big tent” approach, where his coalition cooperates with other opposition parties, other members in his party, such as PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli, are opposed to doing so.

DAP: Ms Tan said that its new leader, Mr Anthony Loke, will have to update the party’s image and try to engage not just DAP’s traditional Chinese base but also Malay voters to project itself as a national party.

OTHER PARTIES

Other parties to watch include those in Sabah and Sarawak, which account for a quarter of the seats in Parliament, and youth party Malaysian United Democratic Alliance, which could act as “a spoiler”, said observers.

On the role of Dr Mahathir, 97, who now heads the Parti Pejuang Tanah Air, Professor James Chin from the University of Tasmania said that he is no longer a key player in the elections as most Malaysians see him as “past his expiry date”.

Dr Mahathir formed the party in August 2020 after quitting as prime minister and as chairman of Bersatu, part of the PH coalition, over disagreements on Mr Anwar taking over as premier.

However, Dr Norshahril said he would not rule out Dr Mahathir making an impact in the upcoming elections given that he is a skilful campaigner.

WHAT ARE THE KEY ISSUES?

The Covid-19 pandemic, political stability and corruption were among issues that political observers said would come up during the GE.

Prof Chin, who specialises in Asian studies, said that as the first election since the Covid-19 pandemic, Malaysians will want to vote in a government that can “steer Malaysia back to normality”.

They will also want a government that can promise political stability, after the previous election brought about regime change and saw three prime minister-ship changes, he added.

Ms Tan said that BN will highlight the importance of political stability and economic development as provided by an Umno-led government during its campaign and harken back to the political stability before the last GE.

The issue of corruption will also feature prominently during campaigning, said observers. In this regard, the opposition could suggest during the campaign that corruption will prevail if BN is voted back in, said Ms Tan.

Umno members continue to be dogged by graft charges, including Mr Zahid who is facing trial for money laundering involving his personal charity. He was acquitted of bribery charges in relation to a separate case involving government contracts over a foreign visa system last month.