Me pro-China? I accept the label, says ex-foreign minister George Yeo as he weighs in on Sino-US tensions

SINGAPORE — Leaders of both the United States and China may not want war, but they are often pulled by mass public emotions, which could result in a conflict that would be “cataclysmic” for the whole world, former foreign affairs minister George Yeo said.

The visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will “leap at you and eat you up”, when the reality is that its nature is that of a panda.

"But China has got to signal that its nature is not that of a tiger, but a panda," he added.

Since he left public office in 2011, Mr Yeo has spoken and written extensively on China.

In his analogy, which the 67-year-old gave during an interview with TODAY on Monday (Aug 22), he said that the panda may look cute, but “you don’t fool around with it. You can be badly mauled”.

Mr Yeo, who accepted that he is seen as being pro-Beijing by some, was giving an interview to coincide with the launch of his book, titled George Yeo: Musings, which is based on interviews with veteran media practitioner Woon Tai Ho and is intended to be the first of three books.

Aside from his last post as Singapore's foreign affairs minister, Mr Yeo has also been minister for health, trade and industry, and information and the arts at various points of his 23-year career. He left office when the watershed 2011 General Election (GE) cut short his political career.

Mr Yeo, who was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019, said on Monday that China is an old civilisation with very conservative instincts that makes it predictable.

Every Chinese dynasty, he said, has built walls, and it continues to do so in the capital market, for Hollywood movies and even games.

“Why do they do that? Why don’t they open up? They like their homogeneity, this makes it easier to govern.”

But with tensions between the two superpowers rising after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on Aug 2, he said that both sides are now planning for war.

“China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable… And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.''

Mr Yeo said studies have been done, which indicated that if a war is held sooner rather than later, China will be badly bloodied, while the US will be hurt.

However, if it is held 10 years from now, both sides will be badly bloodied.

“The point is, the longer you wait, the greater China’s relative strength is,” he added.

When asked when he foresaw war between the two nations breaking out, Mr Yeo said that history is full of surprises and that war “doesn't happen in the way we think it would, by cold analysis”.

This is because the actors do not act on the basis of analysis alone, but rather, are “driven by mass passions” and accidents can happen.

"In war and peace, at the top, people may not want war. At the bottom, things happen and leaders are pulled by mass emotions, particularly in boisterous democracies like India and US," Mr Yeo said.

"China is much more disciplined, they control the media, they can lower public temperature, if they have to. They can raise it, if they need to," he added.

"But in the West and India, sometimes you are led by public emotions. China has to factor this in their own calculations, that others don’t behave like you. Therefore, you must not misread their reactions to your actions."

Mr Yeo said that Mrs Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could have been prevented if US President Joe Biden was a “stronger leader”.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that should be part of its territory under the one-China policy, which the US recognises, with the proviso that the status quo should not be altered without the consent of both parties.

The US adopts an attitude of "strategic ambiguity" as to whether it would intervene to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China.

Political analysts previously told TODAY that China considers Mrs Pelosi’s trip as a form of political intimidation and disrespect to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Should war break out, as a result, Mr Yeo said that both the US and China know it will be “cataclysmic for the entire world, not just for the two countries”.

This would also leave Singapore in a very tight position, he added.

“To begin with, we have a special relationship with Taiwan. We have people there. I think if I were in Mindef (the Ministry of Defence), I’ll be having contingency planning.”

And as the US has ships and aircraft in Singapore, it will become a question of whether to allow the Western power to continue using the country.

“I’m not in Government, but I have no doubts we have a lot of people spending a lot of time thinking about this, and worrying about this,” he said.

DON’T MAKE JUDGEMENTS ON SNAPSHOTS

On Singapore’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Yeo said that when there is a “snapshot of a big guy beating up a small guy”, it is natural to feel sympathetic for the victim, particularly so for tiny Singapore.

But the reality is not so simple when viewed in a larger context, he said.

TODAY previously reported that Ukraine, a nation slightly smaller than Myanmar with about 43 million people, wanted to join Nato, a military alliance of 30 countries in Europe and North America, but Russia is concerned that any such move would tip the global power balance against it.

“There was a reason why things happen this way,” Mr Yeo said. “I don’t agree the big guy should react this way, but I can understand when I see the entire video, why the big guy, at a high cost to himself, decides to take this course of action.”

Using another analogy, he said that when there is a motor vehicle accident, it is important to play the entire video, “otherwise, you're forming your judgement based upon a snapshot”.

Mr Yeo was surprised that the Singapore Government issued sanctions against Russia, rather than wait for a decision by the United Nations Security Council, because this “breaches a dangerous precedent”.

“But then the argument is, Russia has the veto power (as a member of the security council)… (and it) will never agree to sanctions against itself. So we had to take a position.”

He added that even if the US did not add pressure on Singapore, “we would have felt the pressure anyway” because of Singapore’s dependence on US in areas such as the financial sector and military hardware.

The question then, was whether Singapore should have gone beyond making strong statements to impose sanctions on Russia.

“And when we decide on sanctions, how broad are the sanctions? I understand our sanctions are quite limited,” he said.

“In the end… I think it was a compromise. They (the Government) didn't want to go too far. But at the same time, to not take a position when something like this happens, we will regret later.

“So finessing it, sometimes, pleases nobody. But doing it more one way or the other may have resulted in greater costs to ourselves.”

OLD LEAVES FALL BACK TO THEIR ROOTS

When TODAY broached the topic of what importance China has to Mr Yeo, he responded that the Chinese have a saying that when the leaves are old, they fall back to their roots.

He spoke about how this was the case for his father, whose “Chinese-ness” grew stronger in his older age, citing an example of how the older man was rooting for the Chinese team during one Olympic Game.

“That’s how he felt. As you grow older, your sense of tradition and your ancestry become stronger.”

When TODAY pointed out that some younger Chinese Singaporeans may identify themselves more strongly with their nationality than ethnicity, Mr Yeo said: “In Singapore, you can say that.

“If you’re a Singaporean Chinese in America, you will feel much more strongly in your Chinese-ness because others see you in your Chinese-ness, and you can’t escape it.”

Mr Yeo was also asked about a video clip he shared in early March this year on his Facebook page by Fox News host Tucker Carlson about claims that the US was funding biological programmes in Ukraine.

In his caption for the post, he merely wrote: “From an unexpected quarter”, which drew criticisms from several segments of the online community since the video clip had been already been found to be false.

Mr Yeo clarified that he was not saying that he agreed with the video’s message, but that he simply found it fascinating because Mr Carlson, “who is normally very anti-China, took China’s side”.

When probed if what Mr Yeo has been saying about China, combined with his posts about the country on social media, might be seen by some as “pro-China”, Mr Yeo did not disagree.

“Well, I accept that. But I hope those people will read my book, and the coming two ones, and then have an overall evaluation of who I am.”