Analysis: Presidential hopefuls set to show hand but some may wait for PAP-linked candidate to emerge first

SINGAPORE — President Halimah Yacob's announcement on Monday (May 29) that she will not stand for re-election paves the way for hopefuls to step forward, said political analysts.

But they expect some to wait for any candidate who is linked to the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) to emerge, before throwing their hat into the ring.

Under Singapore law, political parties may not formally endorse a presidential candidate unless they have the written permission of the candidate, said Singapore Management University (SMU) political analyst Eugene Tan. 

However, at past elections, some candidates who went on to become Singapore's head of state have had strong links to the PAP even if they were not formally endorsed by the ruling party.

Qualified candidates from the public sector may find it “formidable” to go up against an individual who appears to be linked to the PAP, said Associate Professor Tan.

But he felt that a candidate linked to the PAP would not deter other presidential hopefuls from the private sector from entering the fray.

“In fact, the latter (candidates without PAP links) may rate their chances better given that they would be seen as being more independent of the Government.”

However, Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at business consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore, felt that potential candidates from both the public and private sectors could be deterred if a PAP-linked candidate is "too strong". 

The next presidential election is expected to be held by Sept 13 this year, when Madam Halimah's six-year term expires.

Mdm Halimah took office on Sept 14 in 2017, after running in an uncontested election due to a lack of eligible candidates, because other nominees did not meet additional requirements to stand at the election, which was reserved for Malays.

She was the only candidate to be issued a certificate of eligibility by the Presidential Elections Committee.

The next elected presidency ahead will not be reserved for minority candidates and is thus regarded as an open election.

POSSIBLE CANDIDATES TO COME 'OUT OF THE WOODWORK VERY SOON'

Ms Nydia Ngiow, managing director of advisory firm BowerGroupAsia Singapore, said that with the presidential election approaching, it is likely that potential candidates from both the private and public sector will “come out of the woodwork very soon” to put forward their candidacy.

Likewise, Dr Mustafa said that eligible candidates who are interested in running for the presidency may have already started thinking about their strategy and how to roll it out effectively.

However, such potential candidates will likely not publicly confirm their interest until they know if there is a candidate who has been implicitly or explicitly backed by the PAP, he added. 

The Constitution states that a presidential candidate cannot be a member of a political party on the date of nominating for the election.

However, past candidates have had close links to the ruling party. For instance, Mdm Halimah was the former Speaker of Parliament and a former Member of Parliament (MP) under the PAP. 

When Mdm Halimah resigned as Speaker to run for the presidency in August 2017, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wished her well in a three-page letter.

“I am confident that if elected, you will do your best, as you have always done, and will bring dignity and personal warmth, experience of government and concern for the people, to the highest office in the land,” he wrote back then.

Under the Presidential Elections Act, political parties should also not be involved in campaigning for candidates unless expressly authorised in writing by the candidate. 

Ms Ngiow said that the upcoming presidential election will be viewed as a “bellwether of sentiments” towards the upcoming fourth-generation leadership headed by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

As such, it will be more important than ever for the PAP to instil confidence in the public with the choice of its preferred candidate should it make such a preference known, she said.

Dr Gillian Koh, the deputy director of research at the Institute of Policy Studies, said that potential candidates waiting to see who might be implicitly backed by the ruling party will lose time in soft-launching their campaign.

Instead, presidential hopefuls should place more store on understanding voter sentiment and be clear on what they bring to their candidacy, in terms of their qualities, background and track record, for example, Dr Koh said.

WHAT AN OPEN ELECTION WOULD MEAN

On the consequence of having an open election this time around, Dr Koh said that given that the last election was reserved for Malays, qualified candidates from the Malay community may think that voters will not be interested in selecting them.

“They may think voters will be of the mind that the Malays have had their turn. Under those circumstances, it will very surprising but extremely good for the system if a Malay candidate would put himself or herself forward,” she said.

Political observers said it is hard to tell if there will be a walkover this time around, referring to a situation where only one eligible candidate applies to run for the presidency.

However, most felt that the contest, if there is one, would be more intense if it involves a candidate linked to the ruling party, up against a rival candidate who is not.

In the event that no one at all appeared to be interested in running, Dr Felix Tan, a political analyst from Nanyang Technological University (NTU), said that he believed PAP would be able to persuade a candidate whom the party deemed worthy to run.

However, he did not think that a strong candidate, whether implicitly backed by the PAP or not, would deter anyone else from running either.

“After all, the race is never for certain until the polling results are released.”

Dr Mustafa said that the presidential contest would be intense if it is between an "establishment" and "non-establishment" candidate.

Protest voting is also a “genuine possibility”, he said, adding that it could work in favour of a non-establishment candidate. Protest votes could also be split if there are multiple non-establishment candidates, he added.

Assoc Prof Tan, on the other hand, said that he does not expect this year's contest to be as intense as 2011 presidential election. This was because the eligibility criteria have been significantly enhanced following amendments to the Constitution in 2016.

During the 2011 presidential election, four candidates were on the ballot, with Dr Tony Tan eventually declared the winner after securing 35.2 per cent of the votes, just ahead of the 34.85 per cent secured by his closest rival Tan Cheng Bock.

Dr Tony Tan was a PAP MP for many years and helmed various ministries, rising to become Deputy Prime Minister between 1995 and 2005.

In 2016, the Government tightened the eligibility criteria for presidential candidates.

For example, it increased one eligibility criterion for private sector candidates from heading a firm with S$100 million paid-up capital threshold to one with S$500 million in shareholders' equity. The criteria also require that candidates have the most senior executive position in the company.

Assoc Prof Tan said that the political climate may “tempt a hopeful or two” to play to the gallery and make electoral promises beyond the powers of the president, if there is a contest during the elections.

However, unlike parliamentary elections, the presidential election will be less intense as these contests tend to be less about policy positions and more about a candidate’s track record, he said.